Comparative civilizational turn : how research on civilizational security and social cohesion tacitly fuels the return of "civilizations" to geopolitical forecasting
Organizer
Department of Sociology and Social Policy, Lingnan University
Event Title
Sociology Seminar Series 2025-2026
Document Type
Public Seminar
Date
9-16-2025
Time
4:00 p.m. -- 5:30 p.m.
Venue
LYH310, Lau Lee Yuen Haan Amenities Building, Lingnan University
Description
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine went unpredicted by many superforecasters. A major reason for this failure is the overlooking of civilizational identities—international collective identities combining cultural scripts, political culture, religions and institutional traditions—that shape global state systems. Without acknowledging these identities, analyses often rely on a simplistic "Kantian" rationality, ignoring cultural influences on state behavior. At the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations (ISCSC), we argue that states seek not only geopolitical but also civilizational security, rooted in relational civilizational networks. Comparative civilizational analysis is thus crucial for accurate geopolitical forecasting. Since its founding in 1961 by Arnold Toynbee and Pitirim Sorokin, influential ISCSC members such as Samuel Huntington and Immanuel Wallerstein have echoed this view in their theoretical works. As of 2025, comparative civilizational research is thriving, albeit tacitly, across diverse fields—sociology, anthropology, political science, game theory, and Al modeling. Comparative researchers explore cultural zones, social imaginaries, and the evolution of historical polities. Integrating these insights under the common umbrella of "comparative civilizations” could foster pluralistic frameworks to understand civilizations as multilayered, dynamic networks, essential for policymaking and advancing academic theory. Such integration offers promise for a new comparative civilizational turn.
Language
English
Recommended Citation
Lewicki, G. (2025, Sep 16). Comparative civilizational turn: How research on civilizational security and social cohesion tacitly fuels the return of "civilizations" to geopolitical forecasting [Video podcast]. Retrieved from https://commons.ln.edu.hk/videos/985/
Additional Information
Speaker
Dr. Greg Lewicki, a forecaster and civilizational security advisor is the Vice President of the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations (ISCSC.org). A graduate of the London School of Economics and Maastricht University, he focuses on generating foresight-relevant insights at the intersection of geopolitics, econometrics, culture, technology, and game theory. Building on the work of Hedley Bull and Umberto Eco, he has also been developing neomedievalism as a prognostic framework. A former journalist for Poland's most quoted weekly magazine, Wprost, he has collaborated with the public and military sectors, international consulting firms, and the European Commission. His works include Cities in the Neomedieval Era (2016), State Power Index (2018), Al Worlds: Technofeudalism of the Post-Human Era (2024), and Geopolitics of Technology (2024). X: @greglewicki