Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? The Hong Kong case

Authors

Chengze FAN, Department of Economics, Lingnan College, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong
Phoebe WONG, Department of Economics, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China

Document Type

Journal article

Source Publication

Economics Letters

Publication Date

1-1-1998

Volume

58

Issue

1

First Page

77

Last Page

84

Keywords

Consumer sentiment, Consumption, E21, Hong Kong, Rational expectation

Abstract

Using Hong Kong data, this paper examines the predictive capacity of consumer confidence indexes for consumption. The results indicate that in sharp contrast with the situation in the US or Britain, the consumer confidence indexes in Hong Kong have little or almost no explanatory power in forecasting consumption growth.

DOI

10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00247-4

Print ISSN

01651765

Publisher Statement

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Full-text Version

Publisher’s Version

Language

English