Mortality dependence and longevity bond pricing : a dynamic factor copula mortality model with the GAS structure
Document Type
Journal article
Source Publication
Journal of Risk and Insurance
Publication Date
4-2017
Volume
84
Issue
S1R
First Page
393
Last Page
415
Publisher
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Abstract
Modeling mortality dependence for multiple populations has significant implications for mortality/longevity risk management. A natural way to assess multivariate dependence is to use copula models. The application of copula models in the multipopulation mortality analysis, however, is still in its infancy. In this article, we present a dynamic multipopulation mortality model based on a two-factor copula and capture the time-varying dependence using the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework. Our model is simple and flexible in terms of model specification and is widely applicable to high dimension data. Using the Swiss Re Kortis longevity trend bond as an example, we use our model to estimate the probability distribution of principal reduction and some risk measures such as probability of first loss, conditional expected loss, and expected loss. Due to the similarity in the structure and design of CAT bonds and mortality/longevity bonds, we borrow CAT bond pricing techniques for mortality/longevity bond pricing. We find that our pricing model generates par spreads that are close to the actual spreads of previously issued mortality/longevity bonds.
DOI
10.1111/jori.12214
Print ISSN
00224367
E-ISSN
15396975
Publisher Statement
Copyright © 2017 The Journal of Risk and Insurance
Access to external full text or publisher's version may require subscription.
Full-text Version
Publisher’s Version
Language
English
Recommended Citation
Chen, H., MacMinn, R. D., & Sun, T. (2017). Mortality dependence and longevity bond pricing: A dynamic factor copula mortality model with the GAS structure. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 84(S1R), 393-415. doi: 10.1111/jori.12214