Date of Award
8-27-2024
Degree Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Discipline
Social Sciences
Department
Government and International Affairs
First Advisor
Prof. TAM Wai Keung
Second Advisor
Prof. KWOK Chi
Abstract
This study delves into the complexities of stagnation in post-Soviet hybrid regimes, focusing on the external influences that contribute to this phenomenon. Through principal component analysis (PCA) and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the research examines the impact of economic sanctions, diplomatic measures, international financial, and technological assistance on the political trajectories of five post-Soviet states: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. It finds that economic sanctions and international assistance are particularly significant external factors affecting regime stagnation, with an explanatory power of 86.8% consistency and 69.2% coverage.
The research reveals that while economic sanctions and international assistance play pivotal roles in shaping regime outcomes, the influence of international organizations is more subdued, indicating a weaker link between these bodies and regime change. Diplomatic isolation is identified as having a nuanced yet marginal effect on regime dynamics. The case studies of Russia and Belarus show a shift towards authoritarianism, highlighting the influence of both internal resistance to democratic reforms and external pressures like economic sanctions. In contrast, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia exhibit prolonged hybridity amidst sustained external influences. A model derived from the case studies proposes two main channels (political and economic) and two main agents (the government and elite) through which external pressures influence internal politics. This model illustrates the complex interactions between external interventions, internal political actors, and the varied outcomes of democratization efforts. It suggests that elite responses to external pressures can significantly shape government policies, affecting the trajectory towards democracy or authoritarianism.
The study contributes to democratization theory by offering a nuanced perspective on the interplay between external and internal factors in the stagnation and evolution of post-Soviet hybrid regimes. It underscores the critical role of economic sanctions and international assistance, the limited impact of international organizations and diplomatic isolation, and the intricate dynamics of internal politics in determining regime outcomes. Furthermore, it highlights the potential for external democratization efforts to inadvertently bolster authoritarian tendencies, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complex dynamics at play in hybrid regimes.
Language
English
Copyright
The copyright of this thesis is owned by its author. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of this thesis without express authorization is strictly prohibited.
Recommended Citation
Liu, H. (2024). A study of external factors influencing stagnation in five post-Soviet hybrid regimes (Doctoral thesis, Lingnan University, Hong Kong). Retrieved from https://commons.ln.edu.hk/otd/215/