Bounds analysis of competing risks : a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration
Administrative data, Cumulative incidence curve, Difference-in-differences
By reexamining the effect of unemployment benefits on reemployment probabilities we make two contributions to the literature: first, we estimate separate effects for reemployment in the local or a distant region. Second, we address the problem of incomplete duration within a competing risks model. Our results confirm that missing data problems at first preclude anymeaningful result even though we have access to daily individual data on 50% of the male workforce in Germany. When we impose additional assumptions, we obtain evidence that the treatment effect depends on the household context, the treatment intensity and the destination state.
We thank two anonymous referees and the participants of numerous seminars and for helpful comments and Simon Lee for helpful discussions. Arntz gratefully acknowledges financial support by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the research project “Potentials for more flexibility of regional labor markets by means of interregional labor mobility”. We use a sample drawn from the Employee and Benefit Recipient History (V6.0) of the Institute of Employment Research (IAB). The data preparation and analyses were made possible by the Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the German Federal Employment Agency at the IAB because the project provides new insights on data quality. We thank selected staff members of the Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the German Federal Employment Agency at the IAB and especially Stefan Seth for the help with the data.
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Arntz, M., Lo, S. M. S., & Wilke, R. A. (2014). Bounds analysis of competing risks: A non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration. Empirical Economics, 46(1), 199-228. doi: 10.1007/s00181-012-0675-0