America, China, and the future of Asia
Vincent Woo Distinguished Visiting Scholar Programme
MBG07, Ground Floor, Main Building, Lingnan University
The “rise” of China and Asia does not entail the inevitable “decline” of America or the West, according to Prof G John Ikenberry, one of the world’s most prominent and influential theorists of international relations and US foreign policy. With the “old order” led by the US and anchored by its bilateral security alliances with Japan, South Korea and other partners increasingly challenged by China as a rising economic powerhouse, some have argued that the Western-oriented world order will soon be replaced by one dominated by the East. The Princeton scholar offered a different vision of the future in his public lecture entitled “America, China, and the Future of Asia” on 4 November 2010. Prof Ikenberry was skeptical of the view that the force of the liberal, open and rule-based international order led by the US was coming to an end, as the underlying principles of that order — such as peace, stability, human rights, rule of law, pluralism and multilateral cooperation — were universal and there would be a growing demand for it. That order was anchored in big global institutions such as the United Nations, NATO and G20, and organised around grand security and political bargains which have provided the longest period of peace and stability for the world since World War II. If China and other Asian powers could integrate into this international order and benefit from it, they would not want to overturn it. He saw no alternative “Asian international order” that could replace the existing liberal international order, and believed that the pathway to the future would still stem from the institutions and relationships created over the last 60 years. And the best way to shape the rise of China and Asia was to strengthen the Western-led rules and institutions that defined the existing international order. 極具影響力的著名國際關係及美國外交政策理論家 約翰．伊肯伯里教授指，中國和亞洲的崛起並不 代表美國或西方的必然沒落。 中國崛起成為世界主要的經濟領袖，這種改變為以往 一向由美國主導、並繫於日韓及其他夥伴之雙邊安全 聯盟的「舊秩序」，帶來與日俱增的考驗；一些評論 家認為西方主導的世界秩序將為東方所取代。普林斯 頓學者伊肯伯里教授於2010年11月4日舉行的公開講 座上，則以「美國、中國及亞洲的未來」為題，提出 對世界未來的新視角。 伊肯伯里教授質疑以美國為主的秩序將會告終，認為 此國際化的舊秩序自由開放且以規則為基礎，而秩序 背後的原則（如和平、穩定、人權、法治、多元主義 及多邊合作）均屬世界性，且於未來有更大的需求。 此秩序繫於全球性龐大組織如聯合國、北大西洋公約 組織和二十國集團等，由重要防衛和政治談判策劃構 建，為二次大戰以來的世界帶來最長久的和平穩定。 若中國及其他亞洲勢力能融入此國際秩序並由此獲 益，便不會加以推翻。伊肯伯里教授認為「亞洲國際 秩序」不能取替現有的自由國際秩序，又相信未來的 路向仍是建基於過去六十年所建立的全球組織及關係 上。至於最理想的中亞崛起則是以之強化西方主導的 規則和組織，使現存的國際秩序更為明確。
Ikenberry, G. J. (2010, Novemeber 4). America, China, and the future of Asia. [Video podcast].