Title

Analysis and forecasting of port logistics using TEI@I methodology

Document Type

Journal article

Source Publication

Transportation Planning and Technology

Publication Date

12-1-2013

Volume

36

Issue

8

First Page

685

Last Page

702

Keywords

artificial neural network, container throughput, econometric models, forecasting, port logistics, TEI@I methodology

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated forecasting model based on the TEI@I methodology for forecasting demand for port logistics services - specifically, port container throughput. The model analyzes port logistics time series data and other information in several steps. In the first step, several econometric models are built to forecast the linear segment of port logistics time series. In the second step, a radial basis function neural network is developed to predict the nonlinear segment of the time series. In the third step, the event-study method and expert system techniques are applied to evaluate the effects of economic and other events that may impact demand for port logistics. In the final step, synthetic forecasting results are obtained, based on the integration of predictions from the above three steps. For an illustration, Hong Kong port's container throughput series is used as a case study. The empirical results show the effectiveness of the TEI@I integrated model for port logistics forecasting.

DOI

10.1080/03081060.2013.851506

Print ISSN

03081060

E-ISSN

10290354

Publisher Statement

Copyright © 2013 Taylor & Francis

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Full-text Version

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Recommended Citation

Tian, X., Liu, L., Lai, K. K., & Wang, S. (2013). Analysis and forecasting of port logistics using TEI@I methodology. Transportation Planning and Technology, 36(8), 685-702. doi: 10.1080/03081060.2013.851506