Guilt by statistical association : revisiting the prosecutor’s fallacy and the interrogator’s fallacy
Journal of Philosophy
Journal of Philosophy, Inc.
The article focuses on prosecutor's fallacy and interrogator's fallacy, the two kinds of reasoning in inferring a suspect's guilt. The prosecutor's fallacy is a combination of two conditional probabilities that lead to unfortunate commission of error in the process due to the inclination of the prosecutor in the establishment of strong evidence that will indict the defendant. It provides a comprehensive discussion of Gerd Gigerenzer's discourse on a criminal case in Germany explaining the perils of prosecutor's fallacy in his application of probability to practical problems. It also discusses the interrogator's fallacy which was introduced by Robert A. J. Matthews as the error on the assumption that confessional evidence can never reduce the probability of guilt.
Access to external full text or publisher's version may require subscription.
De Macedo,C. (pseudonym of Neven, Sesardic). (2008). Guilt by statistical association: Revisiting the prosecutor’s fallacy and the interrogator’s fallacy. Journal of Philosophy, 105(6), 320-332.