Likelihood and consilience : on Forster’s counterexamples to the likelihood theory of evidence
Philosophy of Science
University of Chicago Press
Forster presented some interesting examples having to do with distinguishing the direction of causal influence between two variables, which he argued are counterexamples to the likelihood theory of evidence. In this article, we refute Forster’s arguments by carefully examining one of the alleged counterexamples. We argue that the example is not convincing as it relies on dubious intuitions that likelihoodists have forcefully criticized. More important, we show that contrary to Forster’s contention, the consilience-based methodology he favored is accountable within the framework of the likelihood theory of evidence.
This research was supported in part by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong under the General Research Fund LU342213.
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Zhang, J. & Zhang, K. (2015). Likelihood and consilience: on Forster’s counterexamples to the likelihood theory of evidence. Philosophy of Science, 82(5), 930-940. doi: 10.1086/683342