Title

A directional relationship between freight and newbuilding markets : a panel analysis

Document Type

Journal article

Source Publication

Maritime Economics and Logistics

Publication Date

3-1-2011

Volume

13

Issue

1

First Page

44

Last Page

60

Keywords

cross-market analysis, newbuilding price, freight rate, panel unit root, panel cointegration, VECM

Abstract

This article examines the dynamic relationship between international sea freight rate and newbuilding price by employing panel cointegration testing and estimating techniques. The primary question this article addresses is whether the goods (new ships) price and service (sea freight) rate lead or lag one another in a Granger-cause sense, or simultaneously move together. Monthly panel data on three different bulk shipping market segments over the period 1998-2009 are exploited in empirical analysis. Various panel unit root tests demonstrate that the data variables are integrated with unit roots, whereas panel cointegration techniques are used to estimate the dynamic relationship. A positive directional relationship from freight rate to newbuilding price is found, and freight rate is more sensitive to market changes than newbuilding price. These results indicate that investment in new ships is encouraged by a strong freight market.

DOI

10.1057/mel.2010.20

Print ISSN

14792931

E-ISSN

1479294X

Publisher Statement

Copyright © Maritime Economics & Logistics

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Full-text Version

Publisher’s Version

Recommended Citation

Xu, J. J., Yip, T. L., & Liu, L. (2011). A directional relationship between freight and newbuilding markets: A panel analysis. Maritime Economics and Logistics, 13(1), 44-60. doi: 10.1057/mel.2010.20