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Abstract

In this paper the author will examine the short and long-run causality between the growth rate of households‟ savings in the consolidated banking system in Poland, and the Polish economic growth rate (using the industrial production index as its proxy). This research paper will cover Poland‟s economic development over the periods 1997 to 2010 (in a quarterly approach). The main purpose of this paper is to shed light on the direction of the causality between saving and growth, so that the Polish policymakers can either focus on policies promoting growth or focus on saving policies in order to effectively and efficiently increase the wellbeing of the Polish nation. In the first part of this work, a series of perquisite tests on the existence of the unit roots, cointegration and the granger causality are conducted; this is followed by the VAR, ARMA and GARCH econometric procedures in order to find out the causalities and the most accurate forecast for saving growth for the next 5 quarters (till the end of 2011). The relevant variable observations were obtained from the Central Statistical Office of Poland and from IMF statistics.

Recommended Citation

Wojewodzki, M. (2010). The household's savings and the industrial production: A time series analysis for Poland. Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics, 2. Retrieved from http://commons.ln.edu.hk/ljbfe/vol2/iss1/8